2012-06-20

Where to Place Stop Order?

From thomast - Snowrider laoda ... Admiring your trading. Have been following but not able to post during day time.  As I have TLT & TNA, just want to ask you, what is the stop lose price (my entry was during the last few days)? Would it be the June 7/June 13 low for TLT, 124.38?  What about TNA? I'd like to learn how to set stop, as often one big lose kills my profits from other holdings.
thomast - You know that we are applying Elliott Wave analysis to our trading.  When a trade is being entered, it has to be based on some wave count assumption.  Since we have an assumption about how and where the wave should go, we know when our assumption beocmes invalid.  In other words, we can validate our assumption against the Elliott Wave Principle.  Now you know where the stop order should be placed - the stop order should be placed at (or behind) where our assumption becomes invalid.

For example, as of today (06/19/2012), we are seeing that the market is marching north in an implusive wave structure, I would place an stop order below 06/12/2012's low (the right shoulder).  If the market ever falls below that price, our preferred scenario becomes invalid.

快就是慢 慢就是快

不知同學有沒有聽過:  "快就是慢 慢就是快" ?  做行情也是一樣的道理!
翻倍翻得快的操作相對也伴隨著巨大的風險, 成長100%後的下挫50%又回到原點
好的操作(系統)是有平滑向上的 equity line ... 很 smooth 的一種
如果能夠控制好風險, 短期看來似乎成長緩慢, 但長期累積上去便成了漂亮的 annual return
柳生熱切地問宮本武藏:  "假如我努力的學習 ,需要多少年才能成為一流的劍手?"
武藏說:  "你的全部餘年!"
柳生急得說:  "如果我不惜任何苦功, 日以繼夜的練劍,需要多少時間?"
武藏說:  "那可能要七十年, 或者這輩子再也沒希望成為劍手了"
柳生疑惑地說:  "這怎麼說呀? 為甚麼我愈努力, 成為第一流的劍手的時間就愈長呢?"
武藏說:  "你的眼睛全都盯者第一流的劍手, 哪裡還有眼睛看你自己呢?  第一流劍手的先決條件, 就是永遠保留一隻眼睛看自己!"

這故事就是說 ... 做行情不可操之過急, 必須時時靜下心來反思並自我檢討!  太過專注於市場的細微變化, 往往忽略了大格局!

另外一個題外話 - 要記住一點 ... 只有突破才能買進!  寧可買高不要買低!

2012-06-19

市場之間的關聯性

大部分的人都會關心, 市場之間的關聯性
偶到是一點都不 care, 因為看過許多從 正相關 變成負相關 或變成不相關
雖然大部分看到貨幣貶值股市漲, 但也有過長期一塊漲或一塊跌的
若追根究底, 總是可以查出背後漲跌的原因, 但對偶這個 TA purist 來說 ... I don't care
是的! 偶是 TA purist 所以偶唯一關心的是圖 - 裸圖做哪個市場就看哪個圖 - 不要去管任何其它市場的任何圖
若硬要說偶會關心甚麼與FA有關的 - 那就有可能是: 幾點幾分要公布數字 (偶不必不想也不用知道什麼數字要公布), 到了幾點幾分的時候, 那個時候的 price action 才是偶真的注意的東西

想說的是:
若是走FA路線的人 - 可能想要搞清楚: 市場之間的關聯性
若是走TA路線的人 - 建議還是將它當成黑盒子, 不要理它! 輕鬆簡單又愉快!

所以非常重要的一點就是:
要知道在暴風雨來臨之前, 將持股換成 cash
要知道在暴風雨結束之後, 將 cash 換成持股


偶古時候搞了太多的FA了, 基本上偶是專寫FA來哄哄大眾的, 每次寫每次暗地裡笑
(不過偶是不會對FA有甚麼貶意的, 因為可能偶FA太爛, 所以無法靠它來淘金)
再反問妳一個問題 - 你覺得沒有了FA炒股就不能賺錢嗎?

經過N年的折騰, 偶領悟到一點就是 ... 輕鬆點
偶曾經做FX一天睡不到3,4個小時 ... 結果還是見外婆N次
所以現在基本上:
Given a timeframe, I'll set an expectation or a target to take profit.
Once the target is hit, I take the profit and run.


至於 "你会在哪种情况下jump in呢" 的問題 ...
聽過所謂的 "換手" 嗎?!  就是洗盤後再繼續推進
所以就是等待換手時機, 若市場要瘋狂不換手, 那偶也不理它 ...
所謂弱水三千... 接下來是?

One more thing is about market correlation.  DO NOT worry anything about that because:
X -> A
X -> B
We cannot conclude which one is correct:  A -> B or B -> A ?!

2012-06-17

Wave Count




My Trade - 2012-06-W3

I am starting a new thread for the 3rd week of June.  The following lists my positions as of last Friday:

Long Term - Big troop dolloar amount allocation:
- TLT 50% (10%-04/10, 15%-05/01, 10%-05/09, 15%-05/10)
- SPY 25% (10%-06/11, 15%-06/12)
- EEM 25% (06/15)

Medium Term - Small troop stock holding:
- TQQQ (06/11)
- FAS (06/12)

If you have any question about short term trading or FX/Futures trading, please PM.

My Trade for last week:
http://perfectew.blogspot.com/2012/06/my-trade-2012-06-w2.html