Q&A - Solar Stock Good or Bad?

Need your advice. Is solar still worth to play? Thanks.

不好意思偶不做個股(只做ETF和期指) 可否告訴偶一些妳所關注的股票代號以便幫妳看看 謝謝

Thanks a lot. Please help me check LDK and SPWR.

LDK - It looks like the support area is at around $2.5.  It has entered a sluggish basing mode.  I will not play this one because it lacks the momentum of going up at this moment.

SPWR - This one has been in a long term downward trend for years.  Stay away this kind of stocks because we want to trade only those showing some good up trend.

The reason that I suggest you staying away from those sluggish stocks is to make the best use of your investment fund.  We don't want to put our money somewhere without any growth for months or even years.

Thanks for your quick analysis and comment. May I ask about RDN? It has a lot of insider buying, but price is slipped down. Thanks again

I don't want to disappoint you, but this RDN's chart shows a very weak price action (or a very strong downtrend).  If you know me long enough, you know that I don't care anything about FA or news.  I simply speak out of the chart that I read.  I don't know where you get the impression from about the insider buying this RDN.  Probably insiders were buying before March, but now the chart tells me that insiders are dumping this stock like a hot potato.

Q&A - 多頭重倉被套 現在該怎麼辦?

请教雪骑班长，我现在401K重仓被套，目前比较好的对策应该是什么？马上换成bond还是等反弹再出来？ 就是不知道反弹有没有啊。谢谢！！！

最近許多朋友問到同樣的問題  以下是偶的回答:

妳必須計算妳的倉位有多大先  並且計算妳能承受的虧損有多大  因為目前的市場已經下跌了這麼大波  實在是很難告訴妳是否要在這時候去做空 (萬一市場反彈那麼妳空倉不就又賠了)  但是可以肯定的告訴妳 妳的多倉必須設立一個虧損底線  不能持有錯誤的倉位去錯到底  別難過!  勝敗乃兵家常事  這波 miss 掉了  就下波賺回來!  因為偶是大倉位做空 (股票和期指) 所以妳問偶是否近期會反彈  偶的回答並不會客觀  偶是覺得市場可能會跳一個大洞下去直落千里

Will 1293 Hold? - EW Market Talk on EliteTrader

Quote from ScalperJoe:  Yes, it does seem the S&P is heading for flatline of 1,257 for the year.  However, would you change your analysis of the pending bear market if the S&P held above 1,293 Wave [1] top and reversed back up?  In other words, at what point does the "ABC" correction of Wave [IV] convert into a Wave 3 collapse?

ScalperJoe - Thanks for the feedback.  It could be heading to 1257 because of current downward momentum.  About the question whether 1293 will hold, I would bet that it could be breached tomorrow (Friday) morning right at openning.  Why do I make this speculation?  Because of today's solid long black candle with high volume.  If we don't have a strong intervention or super good news tomorrow, the wave count should be staying the same direction.  About the question when the "ABC" scenario should be voided, I would still say that the high of 10/27/2011 (i.e., 1292.66) is the key observation point.

Trading Talk on HT - 關於為何偶堅持看空

From NYQ:  不跟你争了。社会主义好。不知雪大是怎么想出的一直向下,波澜不惊。偶到现在也没怎么明白过来。下棋不好学呀。偶也准备养猫了。

NYQ - 哈哈哈 好吧 偶們就奉行小鄧的黑貓白貓理論 不管是姓共或姓社還是姓資都好 關於為何偶堅持看空 幾點理由:
1. 長線看大空頭 (這點與大牛他的看法一致)
2. 牛頓運動定理 - 動者恆動靜者恆靜 當空頭信號出來時 如果沒有任何反頭信號 就一路堅持看空
3. 反群眾判斷 (contrarian theory) - 觀察各論壇 (e.g., DQ, 168) 這點非常準 - 最有效且最準的! 如果你能抓到幾個具有代表性的反指人物 那基本上就可以不用看盤了!

所以說到頭來 輕鬆面對行情比戰戰兢兢來的好搞

From 君遥:  snowrider,你看QE3的利好消息会不会出来,这样你就要反转多了?

君遥 - 還是老話 你知道偶是一點都不 care 任何 FA 的東西了 管它天塌下來或者明天兩岸統一 任何事情都會在市場價位上反應 所以偶們就簡單了! 偶們只要面對價格的變化來做應對就好 趨勢漲偶們就買 趨勢跌偶們就放空!

The Most Dangerous Bear Market Formation

Having been posting on many forums and serving as a moderator on two forums for a long time, I am going to focus more on my own blog from now on.  I appreciate those who follow my posts.  If you have any question, please feel free to post/comment (or PM me) so that we can discuss.
One of the questions that lots of people asked recently was when the current bear movement could end.  I would like to tell you (but you might not be happy to hear) that this bear market is far from over, as I mentioned many times in My Trade section.

There are many types of bear market formations.  Some are of short term corrective waves, but some are of long term bear markets.  We have seen 1987 big crash, flash crash (fat finger), and long term bears (2000 and 2008).  Let me tell you my friends, the most dangerous bear market formation is a long winding slow motion one!  The money flows outward from equity (slowly) into some other markets (e.g., bonds).  Every time the stock market falls to a support (temporarily), it attracts some little bulls to buy, and the market gets rebound, but the market falls below the support area few days after and traps more people.

In conclusion, DO NOT buy into any dip!  Any surge is your opportunity to unload your stock and go short.  The bear market has just started and is far from over.

均值回歸 (Mean Reversion)

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/meanreversion.asp
"A theory suggesting that prices and returns eventually move back towards the mean or average."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mean_reversion_(finance)
"Mean reversion involves first identifying the trading range for a stock, and then computing the average price using analytical techniques as it relates to assets, earnings, etc. When the current market price is less than the average price, the stock is considered attractive for purchase, with the expectation that the price will rise. When the current market price is above the average price, the market price is expected to fall. In other words, deviations from the average price are expected to revert to the average."

當超買或超賣時 市場將做自我調整以回歸到正常均值 那什麼是或哪裡是均值呢?
均值的界定可以有N多種 -
以波浪理論來說均值是調整浪
以纏論來說均值是中樞
以移動平均線來說 均值可以有 加權 普通 或 各種加權的衍伸
以指標來說 均值 可以是 RSI KD% ... etc.
以FA來說 均值 更複雜了 計算每股均值的 book value, earning, cash flow, ... tons of them

In conclusion, the big money (big profit) comes only from the impulsive waves not the corrective waves.  Trading with any approach that is designed with the mean reverting philosophy is easy to make small money, easy to miss out big profit, and sometimes easy to get trapped and lose big money.  For us, EW technicians, we should focus only on trading the impulsive waves.

Q&A - 指標來看超買或超賣的背離

君遥 发表于 2012-5-15 17:21 Asked:
TLT ,TZA 都冲出上限超买了,为什么你还这么有信心升?

君遥 - 這個問題問得好! 你知道行情分析有FA及TA 你知道偶一點都不care那FA 但你不知道偶會狂笑哪些TA   :]   這就是關鍵所在 區分一個滑雪滑的好的人跟滑雪滑不好的人的差別有許多觀察要點 其中一個就是那些用指標來看超買或超賣而期待均值回歸 (Mean Reversion) 的人 大錢(大行情)就是在那種情況才會出現! 他們看背離 偶就告訴你 背離可以一直背離 背離可以背離到他們全部掛掉見外婆為止! 市場主力或操盤手是最喜歡那些(傻)人的了! 三年不開張但是開張吃三年 你跟著偶輕輕鬆鬆賺一個大波段可以勝得過那些炒進炒出的人搞得筋疲力竭還是不段地虧錢還要好吧!? 這波空頭行情離結束還早 偶們靜靜聽聽音樂喝茶喝咖啡喝紅酒 上網聊天 輕輕鬆鬆地看著帳戶日日新高!
結論重點: 你要學TA賺錢就不要看指標

成功Trader的必要條件

以前在業內的都知道  你如果非常討厭一個人  就誇他捧他來叫他做期貨  現在朋友問偶要怎麼學做行情  偶會真心誠意的告訴朋友  不要做也不要想去學  因為根本不要去浪費這時間  能炒股的人不是普通人  能炒匯炒期貨的人基本上是不可遇且不可求想都不要想的  也許你會想你是B大的PhD的  沒用的!  偶所見過唯一真正的在炒行情上的master是高中程度而已  不好意思傷了你的自尊心  但這是reality

什麼東西跟炒行情是否會成功?  學歷無關(學歷甚至可能成為障礙)  職位無關(職位甚至可能成為障礙)  工作無關  一切都無關!  只有個性有關  當然這個性是可以塑造的  由一個不適合做trade的個性 10幾20幾年後如果還是鍥而不捨的話  自然就磨練成了一的trader的個性  當然這路是辛苦漫長的  畢竟天生就是trader的人有如天才般得麟毛鳳角  但是苦練還是可以達到的  如果妳問偶甚麼是一個成功的trader最重要的個性成分  偶會告訴妳2點:  嗜血 和 認錯 

嗜血 和 認錯 - 就是這兩點決定了一個人是否可能成為成功的trader  其它都是次要或是不必要的因素或成分  神馬TA或FA   都不重要!

心理需求 vs 實質需求

行情的確不好做!  阿黃的行情觀應該還不錯  阿黃是教授所以他喜歡收徒來滿足他教人的心理需求  偶是只關心帳戶賺不賺錢  所以偶歡迎任何人共同來討論  所謂真理越辯越明  經過討論之後也許可以幫助偶發現偶的行情看法上的錯誤  那就能夠幫助偶賺到更多  反之亦然也可以幫助朋友賺到更多  大家都有不同的需求  偶就是搞不懂了  有些DQ或168的人明明就是整天賠錢的拉雞貨  卻有明顯的心理需求想當大佬  真讓人搞不懂  可能是那種想當大佬的心理需求如同吸食海洛因一般可以讓人陶醉吧!  尤其是老青蛙讓一群小青蛙給圍在中間吹牛  鐵定特爽  偶看到阿黃在168被一群老青蛙嘻弄調侃  真想過去貼這麼一句:
  你們這群老青蛙就只會enjoy關在房間裡看A片自己打手槍不知道外面天有多大
但偶沒去貼  因為偶聽阿琪的話不要去理那些老青蛙

基本上在所有論壇活躍的偽大佬  10個有7是行情觀差到慘不忍睹的  剩下的3個裡面有2個就算是看對了行情還是賺不到行情的錢  剩下的1個裡面有半個免強可以賺到一些股市的小利潤  剩下的半個才免強可以賺到股市的大波段  但是那半個如果一進到匯市或期市沒兩下就立刻掛了見外婆  小青蛙們也真可憐  行情看不懂  連想找大佬跟跟連人也看錯  那小青蛙們對於學習上有何指望?  難以想像民國幾年才能跳出那口井!