Enjoy Being in the Minority

大家沒事就幫幫大家去做市場調查,  偶們一定要堅持一個原則就是要站在少數派!  看到各論壇一窩蜂的看同一個方向 (不要笑他們),  就悄悄地回來這裡分享給偶們大家,  那些觀察結果!  尤其是看到一些特愛吹牛的反指代表信誓旦旦地說些什麼話時,  快快速來此將情報回報給大家!

From bucks - 雪大，做牛现在好像是多数派，与我们当少数派的原则有点相背呀！

謝謝觀察!  如果各論壇看多及看空的人數差距不是很明顯,  那就不一定有指標性,
另一個就是當行情開始上行時 (偶今天的收盤短評提到, 偶是猜明天最好的開盤是跳空開高盤),   是否有很多人敢勇於追高  或是否有很多人見高價放空
反之就是當行情下跌時,  各論壇大部分的人怎麼看怎麼做,
因為雖然看多的人較多,  偶們必須了解是否她們已經建倉了,  或者她們等著下來買進?
Again, 對於做多的人而言,  明天最好的開盤是跳空開高盤,  然後是一去不回頭的上行收一支大長紅,  以便使得其它看多的散戶無法進到便宜的貨,  而迫使她們要在高位接盤!

Wave Count - SP Intraday

Trade Talk - SPY

From 328 - 今天看你long term 是 75%TLT，10%SPY，15% cash ... 想问问你，是否你有任何hedge的潜意识念头，虽然你谈到不要太关注各个市场的关联性，但目前TLT和SPY还是负相关的。 难道，SPY 如果下破129.52 （左肩）或127.14 （肩），你真去stop loss吗？因为SPY在120或116可能又是好的买点了。

328 - 偶從不鎖單!   做對就是對  做錯就是錯  沒有模稜兩可的!  各個買賣都有各個判斷  今天買SPY因為回檔到 50% (06/04 到今天的高點) 所以偶買來賭它走灰線  如果SPY下來到 129 多 偶會接著繼續買它!   若它跌破 127.14 (around 3% loss) 偶一定會將SPY殺掉認賠!  至於 120 或 116 是否要買進  則到了接近時偶才會考慮

From bucks - Fib50% actually points to 130.6. So the buy at close was sort of front-running to avoid possible gap up tomorrow?  the HS pattern is indeed still a theory or hypothesis. Whether or not it will be valid remains unknown. So, was your trade today actually based on prediction then?  What I see now is a consolidation zone. The closing price sits right at the lower bound, which does favor a rebound tomorrow. But, in a case of gap down, it will be transformed to a very bearish pattern instead. (again, I am talking SPY)

Yes!  The 50% for globex is exactly at the close price of the day.
For the purchase of SPY, it's based on the assumption that the market was in grey line wave count (bullish count).  The grey line wave count indicates that wave-2 is underway.  How deep the wave-2 can go?  It could be 0.618, but I wanted to enter at 0.5 (before 0.618).  I related that scenario with Dow Theory's HS pattern, for it was easier for people to see the picture.  Again, anything can happen, so I will accept the loss if the market goes against me to some extent.

Wave Talk - SP

http://hutong9.net/forum.php?mod=redirect&goto=findpost&ptid=155148&pid=1830854&fromuid=17450

From luckystar - Hi, Snowrider: I'm a newbee to EW. Actually, you are the one inspired me started learning this couple months ago. Thank you! This is also my first time posting on this site. Is it possible the recent correction is wave 4 and it consists as triangle+zigzag? If that is the case, maybe, we are in beginning of wave 5 already. Does this make any sense?

luckystar - It's so cool that more and more people join our wave riding (玩波).  Thanks for your kind words.  I believe that wave riding is one of the most interesting and enjoyable technical analysis approaches.  It's like playing chess with the market.  Before answering your question, we must know that ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE.  About your wave count, it looks very good!  It makes sense to me.  The only thing that might be in doubt is the size of wave-IV (in your second chart).  It might be the correction of the wave starting from last October instead of the one from last Thanksgiving Day.  So ... It could be:
1. Your first chart looks very good.
2. The second chart could be:
wave-I -> wave-a
wave-II -> wave-b
wave-III -> wave-A.c
wave-IV -> wave-B
Then as you predict, we are in wave-[D].C to challenge 1550 area.

EW Talk - TLT

http://hutong9.net/forum.php?mod=redirect&goto=findpost&ptid=155148&pid=1830095&fromuid=17450

From 时时是好时 - 试着用雪老大的标记方法数了下TLT的波，对接下来的走法实在是乱猜的。请两位老大指正。

时时是好时 - 太棒了!   咱們玩波的又多了新成員加入!   關於TLT長期走勢以波來分析不容易 因為其影響因素比較少(長期殖利率)  反之FX金子SP的影響因素多   你知道在一大堆的粒子各有各的運行方向及各有各的強度碰撞之後   最後顯現出來的是總體的運行方向 - 就是會體現在一個客觀的波型上 - 粒子越多則越是客觀   這就是FX金子SP的波型比T-Bond或TLT的波型較容易客觀地分析

至於波的算法每個人都可能會有不同看法   沒有誰對或誰錯   偶只能從客觀的數波原則來評點:
1. 關於上面的那張圖 - [[[A]]] 和 [[[B]]] 數的漂亮!  至於 [[B]] 和 [B] 因為時間跨距一樣 (6 週) 所以 它們可能屬於同一級別的波 (是哪的級別則是見人見智)
2. 關於下面的那張圖 - ABC 是 flat 所以沒問題   1._c 就有點問題   因為如果是標13579波則它們是推動浪 (推動浪是不會有abc的組合的)   所以 _a 可能是 1   而 2 3 4 III.5 都很好!   至於 IV 是否已經完成 ... 偶們還不知道

Wave Count

Comments are welcome!

What ETFs Are Good for Trading? Part-II

See Part-I for problem statement:
http://perfectew.blogspot.com/2012/06/what-etfs-are-good-for-trading.html

Answer from bucks - "why you didn't use EEM instead to create trading signal? due to 3X ETF's leverage, the traditional TA signlas may be exaggerated or stretched to deviate from the right path of the underlying ETF."
http://hutong9.net/forum.php?mod=redirect&goto=findpost&ptid=173224&pid=1829525&fromuid=17450

Answer from hometh - "if use spy, then trade spxu, upro;  if use eem, then trade edc, edz"
http://hutong9.net/forum.php?mod=redirect&goto=findpost&ptid=173224&pid=1829562&fromuid=17450

So we have:

Use SPY to genearte signals for: UPRO, SPXU
Use EEM to genearte signals for: EDC, EDZ
Use XLF to genearte signals for: FAS, FAZ
Use QQQ to genearte signals for: TQQQ, SQQQ
...

I haven't found a good candidate that can be used for generating signals for TNA and TZA.  Any suggestion?

My Trade - 2012-06-W2

I am starting a new thread for the 2nd week of June.  The following lists my positions as of last Friday:

Long Term - Big troop dolloar amount allocation: TLT 75% cash 25% (no change)
Medium Term - Small troop stock holding: SPXU

If you have any question about short term trading or FX/Futures trading, please PM.

My Trade for last week:
http://perfectew.blogspot.com/2012/06/my-trade-2012-06-w1.html