What ETFs Are Good for Trading?

From lilitulip - if both scenarios will head down, why sold the bear ETF?  and earlier this week you kept saying you regret you didn't have more bear ETF. Thank you

lilitulip - Good question! Very good question indeed! Let me tell you what my pain is, and maybe all my friends here can help me to figure out a way to resolve this problem! I sold my bear (3X) ETFs because they fell below the low of last pull back (05/29/2012). (After that, their rhythm of going up with higher highs and higher lows has been interrupted.) What is my pain then? My pain is that 3X ETFs generate too many false signals, which reduces my profit and increase my loss.. For example, EDZ broke the low of 05/22/2012 on 05/29/2012 where EEM did not exceed the high of 05/22/2012 on the same day. The false breaking below previous wave low on 05/29/2012 stopped my EDZ out (with profit). I was not happy about being stopped out that day because I would not have to chase it back on 06/04/2012 if EDZ did not get falsely stopped out. And you know the rest story ... if I did not chase EDZ on 06/04/2012, I did not even get trapped at high price!

OK ... so you know my pain is that I want to find some ETFs that have good liquidity, high leverage, but less false signals.  Anyone has a suggestion?

Wave Count - SP

Two possible scenarios (please see My Trade section).

關於 Hedge (鎖單 or 對沖)

千萬不要鎖單 (hedge)  那是自欺欺人  一旦鎖了單  很難解鎖  大部份變成裡外不是人
方向錯了  就出場  重新再來
如果一開始的目的就是 Pair Trading 那就沒問題
如果是  做錯了方向  而來鎖住擴大中的損失  那問題就大了
Everyone knows that the real obstacle that impedes one from becoming a successful trader is one him/her-self.

One of the hardest decisions to make is whether to accept the loss or not.  One of the hardest things to swallow is to cut the losing position.

The first step to conquer one's fear and the real obstacle is to face it.  Face the truth and face the market in order to fight.

This is easy to say than do.  The best way to deal with this is to place a stop order right after a new position is established.

Gold Talk - Going Up or Down from Here?

From lilitulip - why do you expect gold drop big? it broke out the bottom last Friday. thank you

It's hard to explain with few words why I have a bearish view on gold in the near term.  You know that I trade solely based on my wave counts.  Let's take a look my wave count back on 05/26/2012.  I expected gold to form a wave-D (after ABC) and then wave-E to end the bear market (purple line).  I wanted to see the wave-D in a diagonal triangle - a normal situation.  Let's take a look the wave count from yesterday (06/02/2012), the scenario for wave-D was still valid (but in a different wave format).  From the current price, most likely it has two possible ways to go (in normal condition): 1. collapse (purple line) to start wave-E, or 2. consolidate (grey line) and then to start the bull run.

With that said, (in normal situation) I bet gold to go down from last Friday's high for either entering a consolidation or an impulsive down wave.  If it collapses, I make big.  If it goes flat, I still be able to exit easily.  ... Note that all these are based on the assumption that the market behavior will be in normal condition.

BTW, I forgot to mention that no matter which count (purple or grey) it goes, I still see gold will set a new all time high by the end of this year or the beginning of next year.

Wave Count

Comments are welcome!

My Trade - 2012-06-W1

I am starting a new thread for the 1st week of June.  The following lists my positions as of last Friday:

Long Term - Big troop dolloar amount allocation: TLT 50% cash 50% (no change)
Medium Term - Small troop stock holding: NO POSITION (no change)

If you have any question about short term trading or FX/Futures trading, please PM.

My Trade for last week:
http://perfectew.blogspot.com/2012/05/my-trade-2012-05-w5.html