An Old but Good TA Book

Techinical Analysis of the Futures Market
(by John Murphy)
是業界走 TA 路線的 bible  裏面有說到  將 FA 當成一個 blackbox  那你就不會有任何心理壓力了

水來土掩
兵來將擋
該進就進
該出就出
管它天榻下來
都不關偶的事

Timeframes

I am surprised that some people have the guts to bet all-in in one trade.  I will not dare to do that.  I know that you guys are very good at day trading (DT).  You can all-in and all-out very quick.  However, one important thing is to define your trading timeframe.  If you are doing DT, don't messy up your DT timeframe with position trading's timeframe.  Which means ... DT is DT.

So ... if you are doing all-in, ask yourself where your bottomline is?  You have to quit when the market is breaching your bottomline.  Otherwise, you mess up DT with long term trading.  Then ...

All-In becomes All-Trapped
(那就 All-In 變成 All-套)

The losing position goes from short term All-Trapped to long term All-Trapped.
(從短線套牢 變成長線套牢)

The hoping of getting out of the trap becomes desperation.
(從短線期望解套 變成長線絕望)

FA vs TA

我只看 TA
我認為只有 TA 才能幫人賺錢

信不信由你
反正偶早信了

Given a same FA news, different people have different intepretations, some bullish and some bearish.  My TA view on the market is bearish, but it does not mean other TA people have the same view.  I don't care anything about QE or not.

電視上看到的:

基本分析搞不過技術分析
技術分析搞不過政府干預
政府干預搞不過內線消息

Full Time Trading to Make Living?

From bucks:  I am thinking of pursuing that way.  My current job is getting me bored to.....  Any advice or suggestions?

你想走以操作為生的路線是很好的! 只要能夠把握住風險控制 所謂留得青山在的意思! 你若將目前年收入與操作資金來反推 就可以知道一個年獲利率 然後就可以問自己一個問題: 給自己一年時間是否有把握可以達到獲利目標 如果答案是肯定的 那就值得給自己一年的時間來試試

如何分配操作資金於不同交易時間框?

From 时时是好时 - 一直想问雪老大你长，中，短期的仓位各占全部资金的多少比例呀。我一直掌握不好，经常一脑热就all in了，然后要么很爽，要么很被动，，，当然被动的时候多。。。

這真的因人而異  你必須計算你的風險承受程度  需知道長線操作的回報率低但是風險低  所以你必須想想有百分之多少的總資產願意去承受多大的風險額度  知道了那個風險額度之後就可以反推至少要多少的回報率才值得  (因為回報率必須大於或等於風險這樣搞才有意義)  經過這樣的計算後  你就可以訂出你長中短的資金分配

 

譬如說 有人賭性比較強的話 (偶們常常看到有些人 all in 來 all in 去) 願意承受總資產在1個月內見外婆的風險  那就可以期待總資產在1個月之內翻2到N倍的利潤  那他就可以將100%資產壓在短線期權上 ... 那偶是萬萬不敢

反言之  譬如說  有人比較保守  願意承受總資產在1年內最多最大的風險是下跌20%  那就可以期待總資產在1年內20%+的利潤  那他就可以100%資產放在長線雙倍ETF上操作

所以你可以定奪:　X百分比的資產 願意在Y的時間框內 承受Z百分比的風險
以便求得不同交易時間框的不同XYZ值  譬如說 (因人而異):

60% 的資產願意在 1年 內承受 20% 的風險以求得 20% 以上的利潤 所以操作標的物可能是 單倍或雙倍 ETFs
20% 的資產願意在 1季 內承受 30% 的風險以求得 30% 以上的利潤 所以操作標的物可能是 三倍 ETFs
20% 的資產願意在 1月 內承受 30% 的風險以求得 30% 以上的利潤 所以操作標的物可能是 FX/期貨

重點是風險控制要做好!  你不至於期待年成長只有10%而願意去承受30%的風險吧!  這就是金融風暴時許多人見外婆的關係  該出手的時候要出手  但是該砍倉的時候更應該砍倉 (當市況不利時而將超越風險上限時)!

From 时时是好时 - 啊，知道了。我还以为有一个‘圣杯’似的黄金比例那。原来是因人而异的。。：）  啊，学习了。  那就再问具体一点，如何知道一个双倍ETF比如说UWM, SSO哪一个会带来一年内20%风险呢？两个双倍ETF的风险显然是不一样的，是要看年线的ATR吗？还是大概算一下年平均回报率？

這問題還真的不容易回答  因為這有關於你如何操作及有信心拿到多大的波段  實在是因人而異

From 时时是好时 - 谢谢，我大概知道了。很多类似的问题都没有一个精确答案的。。这就是art的部分了 ：） 

Wave Count - SP Update

Wave Talk - How Do We Know a Wave Is Ending?

From lilitulip:  why the wave 4 ended last week? thank you

lilitulip - Good question!  Let me quote from my last Friday's comment:
"... The market has moved in a way that is identical to our prediction since 2 weeks ago (see the purple line wave count).  With that said, there is no reason for us to change our preferred scenario at this moment. ... "
So I'll continue follow the purple line until the market tells me otherwise.

From lilitulip:  yes, i read the chart, so is that because it reached the high point but couldn't break up, that's why the wave ended? i just not sure how long it take to say end. thank you

lilitulip - Good question!  We can assume that a wave ends when it reaches our target price and target time AND with a reversal price action.  That was what happened last Friday ... the wave showed an ABC up (i.e., wave-4.a, 4.b, 4.c) starting from last Monday and ended on last Friday with a reversal bar.  That was why I guessed that the wave-4 was ending.  If the reversal bar (last Friday) is taken, then we need to accept some alternative count and review our assumption.

Wave Talk - 1286 or 1250?

From silicon_beaver:  SPX, last two corrections ended at FIB 61.8% (1158.66, 1202.37 respectively).  If correction FIB 61.8% remains true, then SPX should hit 1286.14 (in your chart, grey-line).

silicon_beaver - Thanks for commenting. Anything is possible! The fibonacci ratios can be found almost everywhere, and people sometimes get confused with using fib ratios. If a wave is assumed to reproduce previous ratios, the fractal itself needs to be in the same degree as what the wave reproduces from. Let's take a look:

The wave ended at 1158.66 (on 11/25/2011) is the 61.8% retracement of wave-[A] (from 10/04/2011 to 10/27/2011).
The wave ended at 1202.37 (on 12/19/2011) is the 61.8% retracement of wave-[B].D (from 11/25/2011 to 12/07/2011).

If the current downward movement is the corrective wave of previous upward wave-[B] (from 12/19/2011 to 04/02/2012), the 61.8% retracement is where the grey line ends. We can make this guess from the fib retracement 1158.66 but not 1202.37 (because 1202.37 is of a lower degree wave).

Wave Count

Comments are welcome!

My Trade - 2012-05-W5

I am starting a new thread for the 5th week of May.  The following lists my positions as of last Friday:

Long Term - Big troop dolloar amount allocation: TLT 50% cash 50% (no change)
Medium Term - Small troop stock holding: EDZ, FAZ, TZA (no change)

If you have any question about short term trading or FX/Futures trading, please PM.

My Trade for last week:
http://perfectew.blogspot.com/2012/05/my-trade-2012-05-w4.html