2012-06-22

To Trade or Not to Trade?

From thomast - What a day. I start thinking, for people who have to work day time, it might not be a good idea to trade stocks. Maybe better stop 'investment' completely??  How was everyone doing? Looks like it's quite possible the 6/12 low would break.  Snowrider laoda, pls let us know when you take action in next couple of days. Thanks.

thomast - Any decision that a person makes has its own risk. From buying a car to marrying someone, all involve some risk - big or small. One can avoid the risk of 'investment' by putting money in the bank, and then it runs into another risk - inflation. When we are trying to scoop some money from the market, we are competing against the most brilliant people in the world, and you know that the risk is that they also want to scoop your money away. Some people enjoy taking risk, but some don't. As long as you know where your bottom line is, the risk is just like some token that you can use for betting for better reward.

If one does not trade, her life becomes much simpler. Why? she will know how much she can make in her whole lifespan by multiplying income with working years (maybe 5% per year salary increase?). Then she knows what she can achieve at most in the end. Then she knows what dreams she can have and what cannot (aford to) have. Then she knows her life is a done deal! Trading provides you not only the thrill of riding roller coaster but also the dreams!

I guess that everyone is doing well. I am a relatively conservative trader. Even if the market were to crash and got me stopped out, the damage would not be too bad because I always stick to some very rigid rules on money management and risk control. BTW, "... for people who have to work day time ...", trading the medium- to long-term timeframes is the way to go for them, as long as they place GTC stop orders to protect their positions. They do not even need to monitor the market during the day. Hope this helps!

2012-06-20

To Stop or Not to Stop

From thomast - Thank you Snowrider Laoda.  I couldn't post during day time. Thanks for the response.  My TLT was stopped out today. After that, TLT went straight up. Sometimes, it kind of makes me feel like it's stop hunting by MM.
thomast - The market always acts like that, and it is part of the trading life.  Big fish eats small fish.  Most of the time, the big fish pushes the price across some key resistance or support area and then take profit there while the small fish gets stopped out.  Shoud we exit our position when the market penetrates our stop (mental stop or hard stop)?  Yes!  The answer is yes, and it is a good practice to always place stop orders which will save you from devastating damage!

50/50 - 賣一半留一半

From 君遥 - 雪老大,你卖掉的TLT是不是短期的,长期的该升对不?另外,TLT你是看周线图还是日线图?我要好好跟你学波波了
偶只是中長線減倉而已 ... 並沒有因為賣掉而看跌 ... 這只是風險控制的一部分當對於走勢不確定時 50/50 是一個好方法 - 賣一半留一半
日線或週線都無所謂  因為偶們所看的是波型  所以日線顯示出的比週線更仔細  因為今天賣掉的另一個理由是 從偶們建倉以來直到今天之前尚未發生 倒N字向下的走法 上週是盤整區 本週一向上突破盤整區做出 lower high 今天早盤跌破上週盤整區而出現 lower low 所以賣出信號就出來了!  但是因為偶還長期看漲TLT  怎麼辦?  於是50/50 ... 賣一半!

Where to Place Stop Order?

From thomast - Snowrider laoda ... Admiring your trading. Have been following but not able to post during day time.  As I have TLT & TNA, just want to ask you, what is the stop lose price (my entry was during the last few days)? Would it be the June 7/June 13 low for TLT, 124.38?  What about TNA? I'd like to learn how to set stop, as often one big lose kills my profits from other holdings.
thomast - You know that we are applying Elliott Wave analysis to our trading.  When a trade is being entered, it has to be based on some wave count assumption.  Since we have an assumption about how and where the wave should go, we know when our assumption beocmes invalid.  In other words, we can validate our assumption against the Elliott Wave Principle.  Now you know where the stop order should be placed - the stop order should be placed at (or behind) where our assumption becomes invalid.

For example, as of today (06/19/2012), we are seeing that the market is marching north in an implusive wave structure, I would place an stop order below 06/12/2012's low (the right shoulder).  If the market ever falls below that price, our preferred scenario becomes invalid.

快就是慢 慢就是快

不知同學有沒有聽過:  "快就是慢 慢就是快" ?  做行情也是一樣的道理!
翻倍翻得快的操作相對也伴隨著巨大的風險, 成長100%後的下挫50%又回到原點
好的操作(系統)是有平滑向上的 equity line ... 很 smooth 的一種
如果能夠控制好風險, 短期看來似乎成長緩慢, 但長期累積上去便成了漂亮的 annual return
柳生熱切地問宮本武藏:  "假如我努力的學習 ,需要多少年才能成為一流的劍手?"
武藏說:  "你的全部餘年!"
柳生急得說:  "如果我不惜任何苦功, 日以繼夜的練劍,需要多少時間?"
武藏說:  "那可能要七十年, 或者這輩子再也沒希望成為劍手了"
柳生疑惑地說:  "這怎麼說呀? 為甚麼我愈努力, 成為第一流的劍手的時間就愈長呢?"
武藏說:  "你的眼睛全都盯者第一流的劍手, 哪裡還有眼睛看你自己呢?  第一流劍手的先決條件, 就是永遠保留一隻眼睛看自己!"

這故事就是說 ... 做行情不可操之過急, 必須時時靜下心來反思並自我檢討!  太過專注於市場的細微變化, 往往忽略了大格局!

另外一個題外話 - 要記住一點 ... 只有突破才能買進!  寧可買高不要買低!

2012-06-19

市場之間的關聯性

大部分的人都會關心, 市場之間的關聯性
偶到是一點都不 care, 因為看過許多從 正相關 變成負相關 或變成不相關
雖然大部分看到貨幣貶值股市漲, 但也有過長期一塊漲或一塊跌的
若追根究底, 總是可以查出背後漲跌的原因, 但對偶這個 TA purist 來說 ... I don't care
是的! 偶是 TA purist 所以偶唯一關心的是圖 - 裸圖做哪個市場就看哪個圖 - 不要去管任何其它市場的任何圖
若硬要說偶會關心甚麼與FA有關的 - 那就有可能是: 幾點幾分要公布數字 (偶不必不想也不用知道什麼數字要公布), 到了幾點幾分的時候, 那個時候的 price action 才是偶真的注意的東西

想說的是:
若是走FA路線的人 - 可能想要搞清楚: 市場之間的關聯性
若是走TA路線的人 - 建議還是將它當成黑盒子, 不要理它! 輕鬆簡單又愉快!

所以非常重要的一點就是:
要知道在暴風雨來臨之前, 將持股換成 cash
要知道在暴風雨結束之後, 將 cash 換成持股


偶古時候搞了太多的FA了, 基本上偶是專寫FA來哄哄大眾的, 每次寫每次暗地裡笑
(不過偶是不會對FA有甚麼貶意的, 因為可能偶FA太爛, 所以無法靠它來淘金)
再反問妳一個問題 - 你覺得沒有了FA炒股就不能賺錢嗎?

經過N年的折騰, 偶領悟到一點就是 ... 輕鬆點
偶曾經做FX一天睡不到3,4個小時 ... 結果還是見外婆N次
所以現在基本上:
Given a timeframe, I'll set an expectation or a target to take profit.
Once the target is hit, I take the profit and run.


至於 "你会在哪种情况下jump in呢" 的問題 ...
聽過所謂的 "換手" 嗎?!  就是洗盤後再繼續推進
所以就是等待換手時機, 若市場要瘋狂不換手, 那偶也不理它 ...
所謂弱水三千... 接下來是?

One more thing is about market correlation.  DO NOT worry anything about that because:
X -> A
X -> B
We cannot conclude which one is correct:  A -> B or B -> A ?!

2012-06-17

Wave Count




My Trade - 2012-06-W3

I am starting a new thread for the 3rd week of June.  The following lists my positions as of last Friday:

Long Term - Big troop dolloar amount allocation:
- TLT 50% (10%-04/10, 15%-05/01, 10%-05/09, 15%-05/10)
- SPY 25% (10%-06/11, 15%-06/12)
- EEM 25% (06/15)

Medium Term - Small troop stock holding:
- TQQQ (06/11)
- FAS (06/12)

If you have any question about short term trading or FX/Futures trading, please PM.

My Trade for last week:
http://perfectew.blogspot.com/2012/06/my-trade-2012-06-w2.html