Q: 大师，崇拜一下。想紧跟你炒作。大师认为下星期还要继续跌，这一波低在哪个点位左右？今天航空股暴涨，能不能做空，比如lcc？谢谢大师。關於個股不是偶的專精 偶基本上都做ETF 關於航空股 你知道它們是跟油價有負相關的 近來油跌得厲害 所以幫助很大
Q: 谢谢大师。觉的现在可以short lcc吗？觉的已是3年新高了。
Q: 谢谢大师。我主要做option。不做stock。lcc 是个涨跌幅度很大的个股，买了点6月monthly的put，仓位不大，在观望中。...既然是6月的賣權 所剩時間不多 所以有機會還是要快跑掉
Q: 大师做天然气的etf吗，比如ung，是不是short的好时机？
From 时时是好时: 请问雪老大，金矿股NUGT短期还可再持几天吧？ 一两周内吧。谢老大!
From lilitulip: same question, but i don't have it, feels like a little more up
From 無心風月: 砍一半比較合理$19雖然新聞報出來分析師評估如果FB未來10年每年成長11%目前的客觀價格是$9.59 妳要知道那並沒有把FB被GOOG吃掉市場的可能性考慮進去 偶用GOOG開博客開組群用電子郵件看照片看Youtube一大堆用的 偶離不開GOOG 但是問問誰離不開FB?
From 無心風月: ... 10年後太難預料了,看不了那麼遠.不知道到時活下來的是FB還是GOOG呢 企業的兼併往往不是站在使用者端,很多時候是站在上位者的利益上呀.重點是FB沒有技術含量 但是GOOG有很深的技術涵量 所以FB的 business model 太容易被 copy 了! 所以對手會很多 一但對手是有其它的優勢再加上 FB勢必難以競爭 妳講到一個 good point 那麼現在FB的價位有哪個企業會想併它?
From 無心風月: 不是還沒跌夠嗎? ... GOOG是不錯,不過,FB贏在用戶多啊,誰能先擴大市占,就能利用規模經濟來撈錢好就算它跌一半 總市值變成多少? 妳提到 "規模經濟" 那是較適用於製造業
From 無心風月: $520億 我不是說跌一半就要兼併呀,只是覺得,股價都有它階段性的任務,不可能一口氣跌到底呀 FB製造夢想!那是沒錯 不容易一口氣就到位 因為還是有許多有夢想的人想買 加上一些在上面套牢的人想在下面攤平成本 偶其實是不管FA的因為偶是只關心TA 偶猜就TA而言IPO日的套牢籌碼太多將成為它永遠的痛
From Ahuang: I agree, brain still cannot be replaced... how did ur automation work? no good so u stopped it?Because the systems (algorithms) that I wrote had some limitation (e.g., shape/pattern recognition). My systems were solely based on mathematical calculations and simple breakout signals - which caused the problem. You know that trading is AN art, my systems were not able to understand what a accumulation/distribution area looked like. (Funny though I saw some people were saying that "trading is art".) Furethermore, my optimal parameters for a given system became overfitting which was dangerous even after the system was tested against a huge data set (40 years).
From hq1888: today u said wave3-4 have finished. how do you judge wave3-4 finish, by 30min macd crossing down? could it be possible to have ABC, i.e. 1st leg SPX 1295 to 1328, then down to 1315, then tomorrow 2nd leg up to ~1340? thanks!
From not4weak: 明天必须大规模轧空 才能扭转熊市的趋势。。。 把你和阿黄往死裡整！阿黃的倉偶看不到所以不知道他的均價在哪裡 但是偶的均價在 05/04 所以除非來個超級大事件 否則不太可能打到偶 而明天任何的上行都是偶會加碼空的機會
From not4weak: 你记好了啊！ 你要一天一结账，不能算回到5月4去啊。 挣的钱就是你的了 到手的钱，不要让它飞了那是妳DT的邏輯 偶是一年結一次帳所以偶一點都不 care 妳這樣做怎麼有辦法把倉做大!? 如果倉不能做大 充其量也不過就是線性成長 就像是天天打工賺固定薪資一樣 如果要想拋物線成長 必須把倉做大才能 不過老中裡面沒幾個 ... 不過話說回來 因為妳沒做過FX或期貨 所以無法領略那種滿倉順勢的快感 (要問阿黃鐵定理解那種刺激比做愛還爽的快感)
From not4weak: 老中？你不是老中吗？ 不喜欢这个称谓 你上面的话表明你也是交易很频繁的，如果能买到更便宜的，WHY NOT？如果能空到更高的， ＷＨＹ ＮＯＴ？偶是當然是老中 偶還叫偶的老外粉絲用 Google Translate 來看偶的貼 因為有些偶懶得寫英文 關於交易頻繁度 - 因為偶有的帳戶是專做長線倉 有的是專做中線 有的專做期貨 因為期貨的操作策略與股市完全不同 所以偶的期貨操作有的可以從沒有行情的時候的短線 變成有行情的長線 至於妳說 "如果能空到更高的， ＷＨＹ ＮＯＴ？" - 因為偶不知道是否可以空到更高的 如果把空倉今天平掉 而市場下跌偶不就乾瞪眼了 不過也因為期貨的靈活性 就像是兩面刀 很容易就會傷到自己而見外婆 難!
From ScalperJoe: snowrider, SPX did not close below the Wave [I] top, but simply breached it intraday, do you still consider that as a breach of the original wave count? By the way, futures just opened recently and look weak, ES at 1,289.ScalperJoe - The price action these days has shown that the market was very weak (and could be continue doing so before some reversal force occurs). It is the Newton's First Law of Motion that can easily explain the market's behavior:
From ScalperJoe: I agree with your logic, however I'm still trying to differentiate between corrective wave patterns within the context of the larger timeframes. If the original Elliott Wave count began with the October 2011 lows, my understanding was the wave count remains intact so long as the TOP of Wave [I] isn't breached, which from a closing basis it wasn't (as of Friday). In other words, could it still be a valid "ABC" corrective pattern, whereby 1,422 is still the top of Wave [III]?ScalperJoe - It could be that case because the market stopped right above the 50% fib retracement. If that 50% area holds, we don't rule out the possibility of the wave [IV] scenario, which means that the market would come back to test 1400 area for a wave [V].
From bwolinsky: Where is the backtest of this nonsense? Elliot Wave is bunk, because there is no strategy defined by it, making it subjective and unsystematic. EW is not a strategy until there's a simulation of it.bwolinsky - OK I know that you want to know more about EW so much. I don't know a way to convince you that EW is one of the best approaches to use for trading. Do you still keep the link of my blog? Please go there, join the blog, and see my real-time trading for yourself.
From bwolinsky: I can spot unintentional dishonesty from a mile away. If there was a strategy here, the backtest results would already exist in the thread. Since there is no strategy but guessing, ew exists as fantasy with neither rational nor reasonable basis. You can start defining chart patterns according to your parts of the wave...wait, you can't because there has never been a defined strategy. If there was, you'd be able to tell us what part of a wave is more likely from each point of ew with an accurately calculated backtest. Since no such backtest exists every mindless strategists that tells me there is anything to ew is wasting their breath with me, or else they'd be able to say what the expectancy per trade is whenever they're trading based on ew.bwolinsky - Sorry that you feel that way. Basically, you are looking for a holy grail that can guarantee you the success of trading. I don't want to disappoint you, but at least I haven't found one before I started trading with EW. Talking about backtesting, I remember that I told you that I have done that long time ago with designing my own trading systems. If you want to pursue that route, good luck to you my friend! I enjoy playing EW and get much more fun from this over system trading.
