偶說過N次 市場猜猜容易操作難! 沒有所謂 "转折点" 的事 - "转折点" 是可能轉折的時間價位 但是在那些 critical points 的地方 轉或不轉 不是偶們的期望能夠影響市場的! 轉了當然好! 不轉就可能是一個更大的洞! 想想這個: 真正好的操作是要能夠升級到傻買傻賣的層面 以前有同事專門玩 W.D. Gann 他抓轉折才厲害的! 他可以用三五點德國馬克(歐元的前身)去賭兩三百點的行情! 他下單全都下在賭轉折點的地方 ... 結果呢? 結果他還是 game over 了! 順勢大行情賺不到 但是逆勢如果不是被打到就是賺個小蝦米出來! 所以偶一直強調: 不用去倚靠市場的猜猜 那才能夠百戰不殆! 所有倚靠市場的猜猜來做單的 不就脫離不了逆勢操作的弊病了嗎?!
同學有跟偶的帖夠久的話 會發現偶常常寧可傻買傻賣 也不跟著自己的猜測來做單! 因為偶認為跟著猜測做單只能讓人賺小錢而miss掉大錢! 想想哪天心情不好而沒有靈感了 ... 就猜不準了 ... 是不是就不用做了? 那種靠猜測來做單最多最多只能到達一個境界 ... 就像DQ的某個名ID(已經消失很久了)結果還是以失敗告終! 唯一的出路就是要想辦法升級到能夠傻買傻賣來賺錢!
當然偶也不是說市場猜猜沒有用 ... 當然有用! 當偶的市場猜猜方向與操作方向一致時 偶就會加大倉位 否則就會保守一點
什麼是 "傻買傻賣"? 就是跟著已經設計的 system 來操作! 那當然同學在設計自己的 system 的時候必定會要先考慮到是要做順勢或者逆勢
偶本來是不在意一般性的跳空的! 結果前兩天發生 EDC 開盤價就是 8% 的大洞的情形之後 偶發現偶不能再搞 3X的ETF了! 因為偶要的是能控制風險的操作 讓偶頭痛的是開盤大跳空的 uncontrollable 的風險 只要是連續市場偶就不擔心! 偶是根本不擔心 margin call 的問題 ... 偶上次的 margin call 好像是10多年前的事 ... 最重要的還是資金管理及風險控制! 只要養成習慣隨時 mark-to-market 並且忘掉買進的價位 ... 那就不會有被 call 的情形發生!
做期貨被 margin call 還是小事 一弄不好就是 overloss 才是大事 ... 偶看過N多個人 overloss ... 有多少錢都不夠賠! 隨便一個周末的氣象報告來個巴西冷鋒過咖啡產區溫度急降結霜 咖啡一開盤就可以全面漲停 1 隻 2 隻 3 隻 ... 到最後有多少錢都不夠賠 ... 賠光之後繼續陪 ... 最後帳面是負資產 ... 最後期貨商就要追討 overloss! 有次偶黃豆大賺 高興地去滑雪 結果一開盤直接跳過偶的倒限單 (偶的倒限單是架在小賺些的獲利點) 那個大跳空讓偶大賺變大賠 ... 自那次之後偶下定決心只做連續市場 (alas ... 黃小玉曾經是偶的最愛) 還有一次是福特大屠殺 ... 白金 ... 那時偶還很資淺 (菜鳥一個) ... 整個 team 都被 wiped out ! 還有的 overloss 很多
聊了這麼多東西 偶所要陳述的是 - 偶的操作是很保守的 (甚至在極端投機的期貨交易中也是) 所以這就是為什麼偶一定要避開那種會大幅跳空的東西 ... 偶本將心托明月(3X的ETF) 結果明月卻照溝渠(大跳空) ... 那偶就只好黯然離開明月(3X的ETF) 之後偶要把所有的股票操作的戰線拉長 ... 投機的部分放在期貨 保守的部分放在股票 ... 這樣子就輕鬆了! 一旦輕鬆了就能夠給自己 *賺到* 更多的時間來做其它的事 (e.g., 灌水, 聽音樂)
2012-07-25
2012-07-24
How to Avoid a Big Gap Down?
This article is to answer the question that I had in my previous post:
Bloody Slaughtering by Big Down Gap
http://perfectew.blogspot.com/2012/07/bloody-slaughtering-by-big-down-gap.html
如何規避大幅低開風險
經過長期思考 ... 偶還是決定不要去碰個股! 因為做股票本身對偶而言 就是要將偶已經過度投機的期貨及外匯操作來分攤一些整體風險 所以偶不願意再去面對可能ER次日的大幅折價的風險 寧可成長緩慢些 也要將資本大幅折損的風險撇開 長期穩定成長為偶做股票的唯一目標 所以偶決定如何安頓偶的小部隊了:
偶將把小部隊的戰線拉長 拉到長線交易 ... 如此一來 2天前EDC的開盤低開8%大跳空的情形 其對於長線倉而言就毫無影響 (因為每一筆長線交易所追求的利潤是遠超過中期交易的) 並且如此一來大跳空低開時甚至可能是長線進場買進的機會!
再來聊聊既然如此 ... 要操作什麼股票呢? 前面說過偶決定不要去碰個股 那就做ETF吧! 幾倍的ETF呢? 經過仔細研究個種ETF的長期走勢圖之後 偶發現3X的ETF根本不能做長線! 它的長期圖形被極端扭曲! 所以偶就從此捨棄3X的ETF! 那麼2X的呢? 2X的有些還可以 但是熱門的也就是那幾隻 所以偶的選擇就只有做正指或做反指 如此一來偶就沒有太多的其他選擇!
偶最後決定就只做單倍的ETF! 如果想要提高槓桿 那就上 margin! 那麼在一大堆的單倍的ETF中 要做哪些呢? 目前初步偶先選成交量最大的一些來看 (日後再來慢慢加減):
SPY, QQQ, IWM, EEM, XLF, EWJ, EFA, XLE, EWZ, XLU, EWT, XLB, GDX, XLK, IYR, TLT, XOP, OIH, XHB, RXS, EWG, XME, EWS, VNQ, EWY, ITB
Bloody Slaughtering by Big Down Gap
http://perfectew.blogspot.com/2012/07/bloody-slaughtering-by-big-down-gap.html
如何規避大幅低開風險
經過長期思考 ... 偶還是決定不要去碰個股! 因為做股票本身對偶而言 就是要將偶已經過度投機的期貨及外匯操作來分攤一些整體風險 所以偶不願意再去面對可能ER次日的大幅折價的風險 寧可成長緩慢些 也要將資本大幅折損的風險撇開 長期穩定成長為偶做股票的唯一目標 所以偶決定如何安頓偶的小部隊了:
偶將把小部隊的戰線拉長 拉到長線交易 ... 如此一來 2天前EDC的開盤低開8%大跳空的情形 其對於長線倉而言就毫無影響 (因為每一筆長線交易所追求的利潤是遠超過中期交易的) 並且如此一來大跳空低開時甚至可能是長線進場買進的機會!
再來聊聊既然如此 ... 要操作什麼股票呢? 前面說過偶決定不要去碰個股 那就做ETF吧! 幾倍的ETF呢? 經過仔細研究個種ETF的長期走勢圖之後 偶發現3X的ETF根本不能做長線! 它的長期圖形被極端扭曲! 所以偶就從此捨棄3X的ETF! 那麼2X的呢? 2X的有些還可以 但是熱門的也就是那幾隻 所以偶的選擇就只有做正指或做反指 如此一來偶就沒有太多的其他選擇!
偶最後決定就只做單倍的ETF! 如果想要提高槓桿 那就上 margin! 那麼在一大堆的單倍的ETF中 要做哪些呢? 目前初步偶先選成交量最大的一些來看 (日後再來慢慢加減):
SPY, QQQ, IWM, EEM, XLF, EWJ, EFA, XLE, EWZ, XLU, EWT, XLB, GDX, XLK, IYR, TLT, XOP, OIH, XHB, RXS, EWG, XME, EWS, VNQ, EWY, ITB
2012-07-23
Bloody Slaughtering by Big Down Gap
We had a big down gap opening today. I liquidated all my medium term positions with significant loss. I am very upset by the big gaps of the market opening of all 3X ETFs, even though my whole portfolio looked OK in that turmoil (futures short was making big to offset the loss of my medium term 3X ETF long). After this bloody killing, I don't know if I still want to continue on posting my trades in real-time.
One of the reasons that I did not want to trade individual stock was to avoid the possible big gap after an ER day. So I picked ETFs for trading the medium term timeframe. Since I used to be a futures/commodity trader, I enjoyed more on highly leveraged trading. That was the reason that I picked 3X ETFs instead of regular ETFs. But now it looked like my decision was wrong! I have seen more and more huge and big gaps in 3X ETFs, and that gap problem occurs more often these days than before! The big gap would cause a position being exposed to some uncontrollably runaway risk.
What should I do? Should I simply trade futures index in the medium term timeframe to replace the stock trading? Futures index has its own advantage on this - its trading session is theoretically a continuous one, so the gap problem rarely occurs in futures index. Here is my decision for now ... Before we figure out a way to deal with the medium term timeframe trading, I'll stop trading nor posting any trade for medium term (i.e., the small troop in My Trade section). Please recommend a way to help me solve this problem:
How to avoid the big gap opening in medium term trading (while small gaps do not hurt)? Would it be better off to trade something else (e.g., option or individual stock) for the medium term timeframe? Since I feel good with the long term and short term trading, would it be better off to totally avoid the medium term timeframe?
One of the reasons that I did not want to trade individual stock was to avoid the possible big gap after an ER day. So I picked ETFs for trading the medium term timeframe. Since I used to be a futures/commodity trader, I enjoyed more on highly leveraged trading. That was the reason that I picked 3X ETFs instead of regular ETFs. But now it looked like my decision was wrong! I have seen more and more huge and big gaps in 3X ETFs, and that gap problem occurs more often these days than before! The big gap would cause a position being exposed to some uncontrollably runaway risk.
What should I do? Should I simply trade futures index in the medium term timeframe to replace the stock trading? Futures index has its own advantage on this - its trading session is theoretically a continuous one, so the gap problem rarely occurs in futures index. Here is my decision for now ... Before we figure out a way to deal with the medium term timeframe trading, I'll stop trading nor posting any trade for medium term (i.e., the small troop in My Trade section). Please recommend a way to help me solve this problem:
How to avoid the big gap opening in medium term trading (while small gaps do not hurt)? Would it be better off to trade something else (e.g., option or individual stock) for the medium term timeframe? Since I feel good with the long term and short term trading, would it be better off to totally avoid the medium term timeframe?
2012-07-22
My Trade - 2012-07-W4
I am starting a new thread for the 4th week of July. The following lists my positions as of last Friday:
Long Term - Big troop dollar amount allocation:
- TLT 25% (10%-04/10, 15%-05/01)
- SPY 35% (10%-07/05, 15%-07/06, 10%-07/11)
- Cash 40%
Medium Term - Small troop stock holding:
- FAS (07/16)
- TQQQ (07/18)
- EDC (07/20)
If you have any question about short term trading or FX/Futures trading, please PM.
My Trade for last week:
http://perfectew.blogspot.com/2012/07/my-trade-2012-07-w3.html
PLEASE JOIN MY BLOG AS A FOLLOWER. I WILL PRIVATIZE THE BLOG ONCE WE REACH A SIZEABLE NUMBER OF AUDIENCE. THANKS!
Long Term - Big troop dollar amount allocation:
- TLT 25% (10%-04/10, 15%-05/01)
- SPY 35% (10%-07/05, 15%-07/06, 10%-07/11)
- Cash 40%
Medium Term - Small troop stock holding:
- FAS (07/16)
- TQQQ (07/18)
- EDC (07/20)
If you have any question about short term trading or FX/Futures trading, please PM.
My Trade for last week:
http://perfectew.blogspot.com/2012/07/my-trade-2012-07-w3.html
PLEASE JOIN MY BLOG AS A FOLLOWER. I WILL PRIVATIZE THE BLOG ONCE WE REACH A SIZEABLE NUMBER OF AUDIENCE. THANKS!
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