Trade Talk - SPY

From 328 - 今天看你long term 是 75%TLT，10%SPY，15% cash ... 想问问你，是否你有任何hedge的潜意识念头，虽然你谈到不要太关注各个市场的关联性，但目前TLT和SPY还是负相关的。 难道，SPY 如果下破129.52 （左肩）或127.14 （肩），你真去stop loss吗？因为SPY在120或116可能又是好的买点了。

328 - 偶從不鎖單!   做對就是對  做錯就是錯  沒有模稜兩可的!  各個買賣都有各個判斷  今天買SPY因為回檔到 50% (06/04 到今天的高點) 所以偶買來賭它走灰線  如果SPY下來到 129 多 偶會接著繼續買它!   若它跌破 127.14 (around 3% loss) 偶一定會將SPY殺掉認賠!  至於 120 或 116 是否要買進  則到了接近時偶才會考慮

From bucks - Fib50% actually points to 130.6. So the buy at close was sort of front-running to avoid possible gap up tomorrow?  the HS pattern is indeed still a theory or hypothesis. Whether or not it will be valid remains unknown. So, was your trade today actually based on prediction then?  What I see now is a consolidation zone. The closing price sits right at the lower bound, which does favor a rebound tomorrow. But, in a case of gap down, it will be transformed to a very bearish pattern instead. (again, I am talking SPY)

Yes!  The 50% for globex is exactly at the close price of the day.
For the purchase of SPY, it's based on the assumption that the market was in grey line wave count (bullish count).  The grey line wave count indicates that wave-2 is underway.  How deep the wave-2 can go?  It could be 0.618, but I wanted to enter at 0.5 (before 0.618).  I related that scenario with Dow Theory's HS pattern, for it was easier for people to see the picture.  Again, anything can happen, so I will accept the loss if the market goes against me to some extent.