2012-08-05

My Trade - 2012-08-W1

I am starting a new thread for the 1st week of August.  All troops target on long term trading.  All percentages are the dollar amount allocations of each troop.  The following lists my positions as of last Friday:

Big Troop:
- TLT 35% (10%-04/10, 15%-05/01, 10%-07/27)
- SPY 45% (10%-07/05, 15%-07/06, 10%-07/11, 10%-07/24)
- Cash 20%

SAC Troop:
- EWS 15% (10%-07/30, 5%-07/31)
- XLF 22% (10%-07/30, 12%-07/31)
- QQQ 24% (24%-08/02)
- VNQ 25% (25%-08/02)
- Cash 14%

If you have any question about my trading (long term, short term, stock, or FX/Futures), please PM, and I'll be glad to help!

My Trade for last week:
http://perfectew.blogspot.com/2012/07/my-trade-2012-07-w5.html

PLEASE JOIN MY BLOG AS A FOLLOWER.  I WILL PRIVATIZE THE BLOG ONCE WE REACH A SIZEABLE NUMBER OF AUDIENCE.  THANKS!

10 comments:

  1. No trade for today. The following explains my portfolio as of today's close:

    Big Troop:
    - TLT 35% (10%-04/10, 15%-05/01, 10%-07/27)
    - SPY 45% (10%-07/05, 15%-07/06, 10%-07/11, 10%-07/24)
    - Cash 20%

    SAC Troop:
    - EWS 15% (10%-07/30, 5%-07/31)
    - XLF 22% (10%-07/30, 12%-07/31)
    - QQQ 24% (24%-08/02)
    - VNQ 25% (25%-08/02)
    - Cash 14%

    The market gapped up but closed as a Gravestone Doji, showing some bearish sign. The timing for a possible temporary pause of this upward movement is tomorrow afternoon or Wednesday morning, but we don't rule out that comes a bit earlier - today's high. We are still seeing 1417-1426 as the first upside target. If it starts pulling back tomorrow, need to watch the support at around 1377.

    Wave count (based on the purple line scenario):
    07/03's high = [A]
    07/24's low = [B]
    07/30's high = [C].I
    08/02's low = [C].II
    We are in the middle of a big wave [C] to 1426 (or even to 1524 in the strongest scenario).

    PLEASE JOIN MY BLOG AS A FOLLOWER. I WILL PRIVATIZE THE BLOG ONCE WE REACH A SIZEABLE NUMBER OF AUDIENCE. THANKS!

    ReplyDelete
  2. No trade for today. The following explains my portfolio as of today's close:

    Big Troop:
    - TLT 35% (10%-04/10, 15%-05/01, 10%-07/27)
    - SPY 45% (10%-07/05, 15%-07/06, 10%-07/11, 10%-07/24)
    - Cash 20%

    SAC Troop:
    - EWS 15% (10%-07/30, 5%-07/31)
    - XLF 22% (10%-07/30, 12%-07/31)
    - QQQ 24% (24%-08/02)
    - VNQ 25% (25%-08/02)
    - Cash 14%

    The market gapped up again and closed as another Gravestone Doji again, showing more bearish sign. Today's strong open did not have a strong follow-through, and the reversal occurred right after lunch hour in the afternoon (as expected). Given the timing and price action, we suspect that a corrective wave has started. If so, the pullback target is: 1380 (0.5) or 1375 (0.618). Upside target is still 1417-1426, but it is more likely to pull back before going up.

    Wave count (based on the purple line scenario):
    07/03's high = [A]
    07/24's low = [B]
    07/30's high = [C].I
    08/02's low = [C].II
    Today's high = [C].III.1 (The pullback will be labeled as [C].III.2 on Thursday)
    We are in the middle of a big wave [C] to 1426 (or even to 1524 in the strongest scenario).

    PLEASE JOIN MY BLOG AS A FOLLOWER. I WILL PRIVATIZE THE BLOG ONCE WE REACH A SIZEABLE NUMBER OF AUDIENCE. THANKS!

    ReplyDelete
  3. I liquidated all my TLT just now.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It's like earning me some bank interest income: 4.8% profit of the average cost (119.75).
      As I said before that TLT is not good for trading, but it is a place that we can park our money when there is no other stock to buy.

      Delete
  4. I am going to buy IWM with the fund of 20% dollar allocation in my Big Troop at MOC price.

    ReplyDelete
  5. We liquidated TLT today with trivial profit. We also bought IWM today. The following explains my portfolio as of today's close:

    Big Troop:
    - IWM 20% (20%-08/08)
    - SPY 45% (10%-07/05, 15%-07/06, 10%-07/11, 10%-07/24)
    - Cash 35%

    SAC Troop:
    - EWS 15% (10%-07/30, 5%-07/31)
    - XLF 22% (10%-07/30, 12%-07/31)
    - QQQ 24% (24%-08/02)
    - VNQ 25% (25%-08/02)
    - Cash 14%

    The market had a low open but was not able to push down because of last gap support (08/06-07). Now it comes to a crossroad: 1. If today's low completed wave-2 (0.236), a super surge will occur tomorrow and bring the market to 1447; or 2. If today's low was just wave-2._a, we will see a dip tomorrow to complete the whole wave-2 at 1380 (0.5) or 1375 (0.618). Either scenario indicates a big bullish movement is coming soon, so our strategy is buying dips.

    Wave count (based on the purple line scenario):
    07/03's high = [A]
    07/24's low = [B]
    07/30's high = [C].I
    08/02's low = [C].II
    08/07's high = [C].III.1
    Today's low = [C].III.2._a
    Today's high = [C].III.2._b (The pullback will complete as [C].III.2._c at around tomorrow noon.)
    We are in the middle of a big wave [C] to 1426 (or even to 1524 in the strongest scenario).

    PLEASE JOIN MY BLOG AS A FOLLOWER. I WILL PRIVATIZE THE BLOG ONCE WE REACH A SIZEABLE NUMBER OF AUDIENCE. THANKS!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 急忙中忘了修訂 ... 因為這盤勢是強漲勢 ... 所以不應該再期待 1375 (0.618) 了! 熊方如果幸運可逃脫的話 可能只會到 1387 (0.382) 最多只會到 1380 (0.5) ... 所以以下應該修訂:
      "If today's low was just wave-2._a, we will see a dip tomorrow to complete the whole wave-2 at 1380 (0.5) or 1375 (0.618)."
      -->
      "If today's low was just wave-2._a, we will see a dip tomorrow to complete the whole wave-2 at 1387 (0.382) or 1380 (0.5)."

      Delete
  6. I sold my VNQ just now at the entry price - I hate this sluggish stock, so it's just like I never traded this VNQ. (I'll get rid of all these 1X ETFs)

    ReplyDelete
  7. We sold VNQ today at the purchase price. The following explains my portfolio as of today's close:

    Big Troop:
    - IWM 20% (20%-08/08)
    - SPY 45% (10%-07/05, 15%-07/06, 10%-07/11, 10%-07/24)
    - Cash 35%

    SAC Troop:
    - EWS 15% (10%-07/30, 5%-07/31)
    - XLF 22% (10%-07/30, 12%-07/31)
    - QQQ 24% (24%-08/02)
    - Cash 39%

    The market crawled up a little bit in narrow range, challenging Tuesday's upper shadow (1407 vs 1406). It has been in a narrow range this whole week since last Friday's surge. I expect that it will soar again tomorrow (Friday) because we had Friday surges the past two weeks. Micro scenarios: 1. If yesterday's low completed wave-2 (0.236), a super surge will occur tomorrow and bring the market to 1447; or 2. If yesterday's low was just wave-2._a, we will see a dip tomorrow to complete the whole wave-2 at 1387 (0.382) or 1380 (0.5). Either scenario suggests that buying dips is the strategy.

    Wave count (based on the purple line scenario):
    07/03's high = [A]
    07/24's low = [B]
    07/30's high = [C].I
    08/02's low = [C].II
    08/07's high = [C].III.1
    08/08's low = [C].III.2._a
    08/08's high = [C].III.2._b
    Today's low = [C].III.2._c
    We are in the middle of a big wave [C] to 1426, 1447 (or even to 1524 in the strongest scenario).

    PLEASE JOIN MY BLOG AS A FOLLOWER. I WILL PRIVATIZE THE BLOG ONCE WE REACH A SIZEABLE NUMBER OF AUDIENCE. THANKS!

    ReplyDelete
  8. No trade for today. The following explains my portfolio as of today's close:

    Big Troop:
    - IWM 20% (20%-08/08)
    - SPY 45% (10%-07/05, 15%-07/06, 10%-07/11, 10%-07/24)
    - Cash 35%

    SAC Troop:
    - EWS 15% (10%-07/30, 5%-07/31)
    - XLF 22% (10%-07/30, 12%-07/31)
    - QQQ 24% (24%-08/02)
    - Cash 39%

    The market gapped down but closed as an outside bar - a very bullish signal. The market has tried twice to push down but failed to make any lower close (08/08 and today). Next Monday we will see a gap up and surge, and there will be no cheap price to buy stocks in the near future.

    Wave count (based on the purple line scenario):
    07/03's high = [A]
    07/24's low = [B]
    07/30's high = [C].I
    08/02's low = [C].II
    08/07's high = [C].III.1
    Today's low = [C].III.2
    We are in the middle of a big wave [C] to 1426 (Tuesday), 1447 (Wednesday) (and 1524 in medium long term).

    PLEASE JOIN MY BLOG AS A FOLLOWER. I WILL PRIVATIZE THE BLOG ONCE WE REACH A SIZEABLE NUMBER OF AUDIENCE. THANKS!

    ReplyDelete