Having been posting on many forums and serving as a moderator on two forums for a long time, I am going to focus more on my own blog from now on. I appreciate those who follow my posts. If you have any question, please feel free to post/comment (or PM me) so that we can discuss.
One of the questions that lots of people asked recently was when the current bear movement could end. I would like to tell you (but you might not be happy to hear) that this bear market is far from over, as I mentioned many times in My Trade section.
There are many types of bear market formations. Some are of short term corrective waves, but some are of long term bear markets. We have seen 1987 big crash, flash crash (fat finger), and long term bears (2000 and 2008). Let me tell you my friends, the most dangerous bear market formation is a long winding slow motion one! The money flows outward from equity (slowly) into some other markets (e.g., bonds). Every time the stock market falls to a support (temporarily), it attracts some little bulls to buy, and the market gets rebound, but the market falls below the support area few days after and traps more people.
In conclusion, DO NOT buy into any dip! Any surge is your opportunity to unload your stock and go short. The bear market has just started and is far from over.
2012-05-15
均值回歸 (Mean Reversion)
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/meanreversion.asp
"A theory suggesting that prices and returns eventually move back towards the mean or average."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mean_reversion_(finance)
"Mean reversion involves first identifying the trading range for a stock, and then computing the average price using analytical techniques as it relates to assets, earnings, etc. When the current market price is less than the average price, the stock is considered attractive for purchase, with the expectation that the price will rise. When the current market price is above the average price, the market price is expected to fall. In other words, deviations from the average price are expected to revert to the average."
當超買或超賣時 市場將做自我調整以回歸到正常均值 那什麼是或哪裡是均值呢?
均值的界定可以有N多種 -
以波浪理論來說均值是調整浪
以纏論來說均值是中樞
以移動平均線來說 均值可以有 加權 普通 或 各種加權的衍伸
以指標來說 均值 可以是 RSI KD% ... etc.
以FA來說 均值 更複雜了 計算每股均值的 book value, earning, cash flow, ... tons of them
In conclusion, the big money (big profit) comes only from the impulsive waves not the corrective waves. Trading with any approach that is designed with the mean reverting philosophy is easy to make small money, easy to miss out big profit, and sometimes easy to get trapped and lose big money. For us, EW technicians, we should focus only on trading the impulsive waves.
"A theory suggesting that prices and returns eventually move back towards the mean or average."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mean_reversion_(finance)
"Mean reversion involves first identifying the trading range for a stock, and then computing the average price using analytical techniques as it relates to assets, earnings, etc. When the current market price is less than the average price, the stock is considered attractive for purchase, with the expectation that the price will rise. When the current market price is above the average price, the market price is expected to fall. In other words, deviations from the average price are expected to revert to the average."
當超買或超賣時 市場將做自我調整以回歸到正常均值 那什麼是或哪裡是均值呢?
均值的界定可以有N多種 -
以波浪理論來說均值是調整浪
以纏論來說均值是中樞
以移動平均線來說 均值可以有 加權 普通 或 各種加權的衍伸
以指標來說 均值 可以是 RSI KD% ... etc.
以FA來說 均值 更複雜了 計算每股均值的 book value, earning, cash flow, ... tons of them
In conclusion, the big money (big profit) comes only from the impulsive waves not the corrective waves. Trading with any approach that is designed with the mean reverting philosophy is easy to make small money, easy to miss out big profit, and sometimes easy to get trapped and lose big money. For us, EW technicians, we should focus only on trading the impulsive waves.
Q&A - 指標來看超買或超賣的背離
君遥 发表于 2012-5-15 17:21 Asked:君遥 - 這個問題問得好! 你知道行情分析有FA及TA 你知道偶一點都不care那FA 但你不知道偶會狂笑哪些TA :] 這就是關鍵所在 區分一個滑雪滑的好的人跟滑雪滑不好的人的差別有許多觀察要點 其中一個就是那些用指標來看超買或超賣而期待均值回歸 (Mean Reversion) 的人 大錢(大行情)就是在那種情況才會出現! 他們看背離 偶就告訴你 背離可以一直背離 背離可以背離到他們全部掛掉見外婆為止! 市場主力或操盤手是最喜歡那些(傻)人的了! 三年不開張但是開張吃三年 你跟著偶輕輕鬆鬆賺一個大波段可以勝得過那些炒進炒出的人搞得筋疲力竭還是不段地虧錢還要好吧!? 這波空頭行情離結束還早 偶們靜靜聽聽音樂喝茶喝咖啡喝紅酒 上網聊天 輕輕鬆鬆地看著帳戶日日新高!
TLT ,TZA 都冲出上限超买了,为什么你还这么有信心升?
結論重點: 你要學TA賺錢就不要看指標
2012-05-14
成功Trader的必要條件
以前在業內的都知道 你如果非常討厭一個人 就誇他捧他來叫他做期貨 現在朋友問偶要怎麼學做行情 偶會真心誠意的告訴朋友 不要做也不要想去學 因為根本不要去浪費這時間 能炒股的人不是普通人 能炒匯炒期貨的人基本上是不可遇且不可求想都不要想的 也許你會想你是B大的PhD的 沒用的! 偶所見過唯一真正的在炒行情上的master是高中程度而已 不好意思傷了你的自尊心 但這是reality
什麼東西跟炒行情是否會成功? 學歷無關(學歷甚至可能成為障礙) 職位無關(職位甚至可能成為障礙) 工作無關 一切都無關! 只有個性有關 當然這個性是可以塑造的 由一個不適合做trade的個性 10幾20幾年後如果還是鍥而不捨的話 自然就磨練成了一的trader的個性 當然這路是辛苦漫長的 畢竟天生就是trader的人有如天才般得麟毛鳳角 但是苦練還是可以達到的 如果妳問偶甚麼是一個成功的trader最重要的個性成分 偶會告訴妳2點: 嗜血 和 認錯
嗜血 和 認錯 - 就是這兩點決定了一個人是否可能成為成功的trader 其它都是次要或是不必要的因素或成分 神馬TA或FA 都不重要!
什麼東西跟炒行情是否會成功? 學歷無關(學歷甚至可能成為障礙) 職位無關(職位甚至可能成為障礙) 工作無關 一切都無關! 只有個性有關 當然這個性是可以塑造的 由一個不適合做trade的個性 10幾20幾年後如果還是鍥而不捨的話 自然就磨練成了一的trader的個性 當然這路是辛苦漫長的 畢竟天生就是trader的人有如天才般得麟毛鳳角 但是苦練還是可以達到的 如果妳問偶甚麼是一個成功的trader最重要的個性成分 偶會告訴妳2點: 嗜血 和 認錯
嗜血 和 認錯 - 就是這兩點決定了一個人是否可能成為成功的trader 其它都是次要或是不必要的因素或成分 神馬TA或FA 都不重要!
心理需求 vs 實質需求
行情的確不好做! 阿黃的行情觀應該還不錯 阿黃是教授所以他喜歡收徒來滿足他教人的心理需求 偶是只關心帳戶賺不賺錢 所以偶歡迎任何人共同來討論 所謂真理越辯越明 經過討論之後也許可以幫助偶發現偶的行情看法上的錯誤 那就能夠幫助偶賺到更多 反之亦然也可以幫助朋友賺到更多 大家都有不同的需求 偶就是搞不懂了 有些DQ或168的人明明就是整天賠錢的拉雞貨 卻有明顯的心理需求想當大佬 真讓人搞不懂 可能是那種想當大佬的心理需求如同吸食海洛因一般可以讓人陶醉吧! 尤其是老青蛙讓一群小青蛙給圍在中間吹牛 鐵定特爽 偶看到阿黃在168被一群老青蛙嘻弄調侃 真想過去貼這麼一句:
你們這群老青蛙就只會enjoy關在房間裡看A片自己打手槍不知道外面天有多大
但偶沒去貼 因為偶聽阿琪的話不要去理那些老青蛙
基本上在所有論壇活躍的偽大佬 10個有7是行情觀差到慘不忍睹的 剩下的3個裡面有2個就算是看對了行情還是賺不到行情的錢 剩下的1個裡面有半個免強可以賺到一些股市的小利潤 剩下的半個才免強可以賺到股市的大波段 但是那半個如果一進到匯市或期市沒兩下就立刻掛了見外婆 小青蛙們也真可憐 行情看不懂 連想找大佬跟跟連人也看錯 那小青蛙們對於學習上有何指望? 難以想像民國幾年才能跳出那口井!
你們這群老青蛙就只會enjoy關在房間裡看A片自己打手槍不知道外面天有多大
但偶沒去貼 因為偶聽阿琪的話不要去理那些老青蛙
基本上在所有論壇活躍的偽大佬 10個有7是行情觀差到慘不忍睹的 剩下的3個裡面有2個就算是看對了行情還是賺不到行情的錢 剩下的1個裡面有半個免強可以賺到一些股市的小利潤 剩下的半個才免強可以賺到股市的大波段 但是那半個如果一進到匯市或期市沒兩下就立刻掛了見外婆 小青蛙們也真可憐 行情看不懂 連想找大佬跟跟連人也看錯 那小青蛙們對於學習上有何指望? 難以想像民國幾年才能跳出那口井!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)