I am starting a new thread for the 2nd week of July. The following lists my positions as of last Friday:
Long Term - Big troop dollar amount allocation:
- TLT 25% (10%-04/10, 15%-05/01)
- SPY 25% (10%-07/05, 15%-07/06)
- Cash 50%
Medium Term - Small troop stock holding:
- FAS (07/06)
- TQQQ (07/06)
If you have any question about short term trading or FX/Futures trading, please PM.
My Trade for last week:
http://perfectew.blogspot.com/2012/07/my-trade-2012-07-w1.html
I just bot TNA with the fund in my small troop.
ReplyDeleteI sold my FAS just now.
ReplyDeleteWe bought TNA and sold FAS (with 2.5% small loss of the purchased price) today. The following explains my portfolio as of today's close:
ReplyDeleteLong Term - Big troop dollar amount allocation:
- TLT 25% (10%-04/10, 15%-05/01)
- SPY 25% (10%-07/05, 15%-07/06)
- Cash 50%
Medium Term - Small troop stock holding:
- TQQQ (07/06)
- TNA (07/09)
The market tested the support of last Friday's big gap and closed as a doji with lower shadow piercing through last Friday's low. That price action demonstrated that the gap's strong support was a good one. Tomorrow most likely it would open high (a gap maybe) and then move higher. I expect to see a long hollow red candlestick tomorrow.
Wave count (based on the purple line wave count):
06/25/2012's low = [II]
07/03's high = [III].I
Today's low = [III].II -> Tomorrow we will see a gap-up open and strong surge again.
Today's low = [III].II.a -> We will have more opportunity to load on Thursday.
(Note that this scenario will become invalid if the market shows a 5-wave down movement.)
PLEASE JOIN MY BLOG AS A FOLLOWER. I WILL PRIVATIZE THE BLOG ONCE WE REACH A SIZEABLE NUMBER OF AUDIENCE. THANKS!
The market seemed to be weaker than what we thought. If QQQ goes below last Friday's low, I will liquidate TQQQ.
ReplyDeleteJust FYI that I have sold my TQQQ.
DeleteIf IWM falls below the low of 07/02 (where the wave-4 ended), I will liquidate my TNA.
ReplyDeleteJust FYI that I have sold my TNA
DeleteToday we sold TQQQ (with 1.8% small loss of the purchase price), and we also sold TNA (with 2.3% small loss of the purchase price). The following explains my portfolio as of today's close:
ReplyDeleteLong Term - Big troop dollar amount allocation:
- TLT 25% (10%-04/10, 15%-05/01)
- SPY 25% (10%-07/05, 15%-07/06)
- Cash 50%
Medium Term - Small troop stock holding: None
The market did gap up at open but slid down to close the opening gap before noon, which was a bearish price action. Moreover, the market went all the way to break yesterday's low and formed a bearish outside bar. Today's low hit and held at the upward trend line (06/04, 06/25), and it was also the 0.618 fib area of the wave-I. Since today's low is so critical, the key observation price for next few days will be today's low.
Wave count (based on the purple line wave count):
06/25/2012's low = [II]
07/03's high = [III].I
07/09's low = [III].II.a
Today's high = [III].II.b
Today's low = [III].II.c -> It completed the wave-II? If so, it should not be breached!
(Note that this scenario will become invalid if the market shows a 5-wave down movement.)
I am going to buy more SPY with the fund (dollar allocation 10%) in my big troop at MOC price.
ReplyDeleteWe bought some SPY today. The following explains my portfolio as of today's close:
ReplyDeleteLong Term - Big troop dollar amount allocation:
- TLT 25% (10%-04/10, 15%-05/01)
- SPY 35% (10%-07/05, 15%-07/06, 10%-07/11)
- Cash 40%
Medium Term - Small troop stock holding: None
Today's candlestick was a pin with a medium size lower shadow. Today's low hit the 0.618 of SPY wave-I and its ascending trend line, while yesterday's low hit those of futures index. Since today's low is so critical, the key observation price for next few days will be today's low.
Wave count (based on the purple line wave count):
06/25/2012's low = [II]
07/03's high = [III].I
07/09's low = [III].II.a
07/10's high = [III].II.b
Today's low = [III].II.c -> It completed the wave-II? If so, it should not be breached! It could be a gap up opening and a long red hollow candlestick tomorrow.
(Note that this scenario will become invalid if the market shows a 5-wave down movement.)
PLEASE JOIN MY BLOG AS A FOLLOWER. I WILL PRIVATIZE THE BLOG ONCE WE REACH A SIZEABLE NUMBER OF AUDIENCE. THANKS!
No trade for medium- and long-term position today. The following explains my portfolio as of today's close:
ReplyDeleteLong Term - Big troop dollar amount allocation:
- TLT 25% (10%-04/10, 15%-05/01)
- SPY 35% (10%-07/05, 15%-07/06, 10%-07/11)
- Cash 40%
Medium Term - Small troop stock holding: None
The market opened right below yesterday's low (a critical point) and triggered more selling pressue to set a new weekly low. It found a support and started bouncing back from today's low at another critical point. Today's low was critical because:
1. It hit the trend line of a new up channel (06/19, 07/03, 06/25), and
2. It hit another fib area 0.382 (06/04, 06/19)
The candlestick was another pin with a medium size lower shadow. The chart shows that these two days the bulls have been trying to find a solid ground to stand against, but they got defeated in evening session everyday. It traps more and more small bulls on the way down in this kind of slow motion downward movement. We DO NOT want to see another gap down tomorrow because it could trigger a collapse!
Wave count (bullise alternative wave count):
06/19/2012's high = [A]
06/25/2012's low = [B].A
07/03's high = [B].B
Today's low = [B].c -> Did it complete the wave-[B]? If so, it must hold!
(Note that this scenario becomes invalid if the market shows a 5-wave down movement.)
PLEASE JOIN MY BLOG AS A FOLLOWER. I WILL PRIVATIZE THE BLOG ONCE WE REACH A SIZEABLE NUMBER OF AUDIENCE. THANKS!
No trade for medium- and long-term position today. The following explains my portfolio as of today's close:
ReplyDeleteLong Term - Big troop dollar amount allocation:
- TLT 25% (10%-04/10, 15%-05/01)
- SPY 35% (10%-07/05, 15%-07/06, 10%-07/11)
- Cash 40%
Medium Term - Small troop stock holding: None
The market jumped up and closed as a long red hollow candlestick with no shadow - a very strong bullish sign. However, it did not show a good volume for today's big gain. Next Monday it could pull back to test 1345 before moving further north.
Wave count (based on the latest purple line wave count):
06/19/2012's high = [A]
06/25/2012's low = [B].A
07/03's high = [B].B
07/12's low = [B].C
Today's high = [C].I.1 -> This wave-I.1 is about to end, and next Monday will be wave-I.2
(Note that this scenario becomes invalid if the market shows a 5-wave down movement.)
PLEASE JOIN MY BLOG AS A FOLLOWER. I WILL PRIVATIZE THE BLOG ONCE WE REACH A SIZEABLE NUMBER OF AUDIENCE. THANKS!