2012-07-08

Where to Place Stop Order? Part-II

Part-I:
http://perfectew.blogspot.com/2012/06/where-to-place-stop-order.html

From tang1688 - Hi Snow laoda !!  I knew you bought SPY,FAS,,,, today at market closed price , would you tell me where is STOP point please ?! Thank you.
That is really a Hundred Million Dollar Question because everyone has her own answer.  The basic rules are as the following:
1. You need to know WHY you enter a position (e.g., you see the profit target at where?)
2. Then you need to know when to give up your assumption in above rule #1.  In other words, you need to know in what market situation that your position is a mistake one.

偶一直覺得倒限單的位置因人而異  並且迷信地覺得那是個見光死的東西  就是萬一說出來市場主力就會過來把它吃掉  除非偶已經不在乎某一個倉位了(e.g., TLT)  那偶就會無所謂地說出來 (e.g., TLT 06/20's low)

言歸正傳 ... 這SPY到底要守哪裡?  偶們做一個trade必定有2個東西: 期待值 及 風險值  The rule of thumb is 期待利潤 >= 承受風險 (至少等值或者2倍3倍4倍5倍...)

tang1688 - Based on the rule above and the wave count of this week, we can make the following bets if we entered last Friday (SPY @ 135.49):
 1. 倒限單守 134.85 以下 -> 獲利點至少在 136.13 以上 (135.49+135.49-134.85=136.13)
 2. 倒限單守 132.79 以下 -> 獲利點至少在 138.19 以上 (135.49+135.49-132.79=138.19)
 3. 倒限單守 131.28 以下 -> 獲利點至少在 139.70 以上 (135.49+135.49-131.28=139.70)
 4. 倒限單守 130.85 以下 -> 獲利點至少在 140.13 以上 (135.49+135.49-130.85=140.13)
 ...
Then you know where to place the stop order to make the trade reasonable.

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